This is a summary of the National Research Council’s (NRC) workshop Trends in Oil Supply and Demand and the Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, which was held on October 20 and 21, 2005.¹ The interest in holding such a workshop stemmed from a variety of recent analyses projecting that the global production of conventional oil might reach a certain level and then start to decline and that this oil peaking might occur within a decade or so.² Some analysts were even predicting that peaking would occur much sooner, perhaps within a year or two. Many of these analyses were being put forth by individuals affiliated with the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). The interest in peak oil reflects concern that a peaking of global conventional oil production could have extraordinary implications: namely, oil shortages, rapidly rising oil prices and inflation, economic downturns and recessions, and possibly catastrophic economic disruptions. These projections were in contrast to those of many other analysts and groups, such as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), major oil companies, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC),³ which were projecting that conventional oil production could meet rising demand for many decades to come and that any oil peaking was much further off in the future.

The importance of the workshop topic and of the issues raised during the workshop was echoed by most of the participants (speakers and guests), and there was intense discussion and an intellectual excitement during the two-day meeting. Between 125 and 150 people attended at various times, including members of the press, and audience participation was extensive. Regardless of their positions in the debate, various participants raised several issues that are potentially key to the nation’s energy future: These are indicated in the chapter “Potential Follow-up Studies and Activities.” Understanding these issues is urgent because of the time lags inherent in increasing the global supply of liquid fuels, reducing forecast demand, or transitioning from petroleum to alternative resources.